Backtest a 200-day moving average filter on NVDA
The 200-day moving average is the most-watched trend filter in finance. Hold NVDA when its price is above the 200-day MA, sit in cash when below. It's not the highest-returning strategy but it consistently dodges the worst drawdowns of a high-beta name. Run it free on Livermore — no signup required for one shot, no credit card, no demo data.
No credit card. One backtest per anonymous visitor. Sign up free for 5 weekly custom runs + unlimited templates.
How the strategy works
The strategy buys NVDA when the close crosses above its 200-trading-day simple moving average and sells when it crosses below. Signals are evaluated daily; transitions happen at the next day's open. Backtested over the last five years, this filter typically beats buy-and-hold on max drawdown by 30-40 percentage points while giving up some upside on the strongest legs. It's the kind of strategy that wins by losing less.
Why it works on NVDA specifically: NVDA has had multiple 60%+ drawdowns in the last decade. The 200-day filter is fast enough to step out before the drawdown compounds and slow enough to ignore most one-month wobbles. On lower-volatility names (KO, JNJ), this filter under-performs buy-and-hold because there are no big drawdowns to avoid.
How to run this on Livermore
- 1
Open the template
Click 'Run free' below to open this template in the Livermore workspace.
- 2
Choose a ticker
Default universe: NVDA. Swap to any S&P 500 ticker for free.
- 3
Click Run
The backtest runs on real Alpha Vantage price data and shows results in seconds.
Reading the results
Read the live result above. If Sharpe is north of 1.0 and max drawdown is less than half of buy-and-hold, the filter is doing its job. If returns lag buy-and-hold by more than 30%, the trend has been so strong that the filter mostly hurt — that's expected in a relentless uptrend. The strategy earns its keep in choppy markets and crashes, not in straight-line bull runs.
FAQ
What is a 200-day moving average?
The 200-day moving average is the average closing price over the previous 200 trading days. It's the slowest of the common trend filters and is widely watched by institutional investors, so it sometimes acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy at major regime changes.
Can I run this strategy for free on Livermore?
Yes. One backtest per anonymous visitor — no signup, no credit card. If you sign up (free Scout tier), you get 5 custom backtests per week and unlimited template runs.
Does this strategy work in 2026?
The result above is computed on real recent price data, not a demo. Run it and check the numbers for yourself. The 200-day filter's strength is regime-dependent — it shines in markets with multi-month drawdowns and underperforms in steady uptrends.
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Free to try. No credit card. Real market data.
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